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Should You Buy Centerra Gold Stock Before Q4 Earnings Release?
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Key Takeaways
CGAU to report Q4 2025 results on Feb. 19, with EPS seen at 34 cents, up 100% YoY.
Centerra Gold saw steady output at Mount Milligan and Oksut, with AISC in the mid-$1,600s range.
Gold and copper prices, capital spending and a Langeloth facility blast shaped the margin outlook.
Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU - Free Report) is slated to come up with fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 19, after market close. The company’s results are expected to reflect continued operational momentum underpinned by stable production from core assets like Mount Milligan and Oksut and disciplined cost control, with the backdrop of supportive gold prices.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings has been going up in the past 30 days. The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at 34 cents per share, suggesting a 100% year-over-year surge.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CGAU beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in two of the last four quarters, came in line in one quarter and missed once. In this timeframe, it delivered an earnings surprise of roughly 22%, on average.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Q4 Earnings Whispers for CGAU Stock
Our proven model conclusively predicts an earnings beat for Centerra Gold this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat, which is exactly the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter
CGAU’s performance is building directly on the operational momentum and cost profile seen in the previous quarter. In the third quarter, the company demonstrated solid production execution at Mount Milligan and Oksut, which, supported by favorable gold and copper prices, helped offset elevated cost pressures.
The period also highlighted a structurally higher cost base, with gold production costs around the mid-$1,300s per ounce and all-in sustaining costs (AISC) in the mid-$1,600s per ounce range. These higher sustaining costs were driven by mine sequencing, sustaining capital intensity (including tailings, equipment upgrades and site development) and inflationary inputs such as fuel, labor and consumables.
The fourth-quarter performance is likely to reflect a blend of mine-level execution and macro price dynamics. Operationally, results would have hinged on grade consistency, throughput stability and recovery rates at Mount Milligan and Oksut, with any normalization following the previous quarter’s favorable ore sequencing potentially pressuring unit costs, even if volumes remained within guidance.
CGAU Stock’s Price Performance & Valuation
CGAU’s shares have shot up 193.2% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s 140% surge and the S&P 500’s 13.9% rise. Among its peers, AngloGold Ashanti Plc (AU - Free Report) , DPM Metals Inc. (DPMLF - Free Report) and Equinox Gold Corp.(EQX - Free Report) have rallied 241.2%, 232.2% and 125.7%, respectively, over the same period.
Price Performance of CGAU vs. Industry, S&P 500, AU, DPMLF and EQX
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, CGAU is currently trading at a forward 12-month sales multiple of 3.00. This represents a roughly 15% discount when stacked up with the industry average of 3.52X. CGAU is trading at a discount to AngloGold, Equinox and DPM Metals. DPMLF, EQX and AU have a Value Score of D each.
Valuation of CGAU vs. Industry, AU, DPMLF and EQX
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Thesis for CGAU Stock
Centerra Gold is well positioned for steady production and improving cost visibility, with balanced exposure to gold and copper through Mount Milligan and Oksut. Stable grades, disciplined cost control and copper by-product credits support margin resilience, while elevated gold prices enhance cash generation despite ongoing sustaining capital. Strategic investments in mine-life extension strengthen long-term reserve visibility and asset value. Although metal price volatility and regulatory considerations in Turkey remain risks, solid liquidity and operational consistency underpin a constructive near-term outlook with improving free cash flow leverage.
Final Thoughts: Buy CGAU Stock
Building on solid third-quarter operational execution, marked by consistent production, disciplined cost execution and solid balance sheet strength, Centerra Gold is well positioned to carry positive momentum into the fourth quarter. Stable operations at Mount Milligan and Oksut, complemented by copper by-product credits and supportive gold prices, underpin margin strength and cash flow generation. Ongoing investments to extend mine life further enhance long-term asset value. With operational consistency and favorable pricing dynamics in place, the outlook remains constructive, reinforcing confidence in a buy recommendation.
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Should You Buy Centerra Gold Stock Before Q4 Earnings Release?
Key Takeaways
Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU - Free Report) is slated to come up with fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 19, after market close. The company’s results are expected to reflect continued operational momentum underpinned by stable production from core assets like Mount Milligan and Oksut and disciplined cost control, with the backdrop of supportive gold prices.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings has been going up in the past 30 days. The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at 34 cents per share, suggesting a 100% year-over-year surge.
CGAU beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in two of the last four quarters, came in line in one quarter and missed once. In this timeframe, it delivered an earnings surprise of roughly 22%, on average.
Q4 Earnings Whispers for CGAU Stock
Our proven model conclusively predicts an earnings beat for Centerra Gold this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat, which is exactly the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter
CGAU has an Earnings ESP of +4.14% and sports a Zacks Rank #1 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Likely to Have Shaped CGAU’s Q4 Results
CGAU’s performance is building directly on the operational momentum and cost profile seen in the previous quarter. In the third quarter, the company demonstrated solid production execution at Mount Milligan and Oksut, which, supported by favorable gold and copper prices, helped offset elevated cost pressures.
The period also highlighted a structurally higher cost base, with gold production costs around the mid-$1,300s per ounce and all-in sustaining costs (AISC) in the mid-$1,600s per ounce range. These higher sustaining costs were driven by mine sequencing, sustaining capital intensity (including tailings, equipment upgrades and site development) and inflationary inputs such as fuel, labor and consumables.
The fourth-quarter performance is likely to reflect a blend of mine-level execution and macro price dynamics. Operationally, results would have hinged on grade consistency, throughput stability and recovery rates at Mount Milligan and Oksut, with any normalization following the previous quarter’s favorable ore sequencing potentially pressuring unit costs, even if volumes remained within guidance.
CGAU Stock’s Price Performance & Valuation
CGAU’s shares have shot up 193.2% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s 140% surge and the S&P 500’s 13.9% rise. Among its peers, AngloGold Ashanti Plc (AU - Free Report) , DPM Metals Inc. (DPMLF - Free Report) and Equinox Gold Corp.(EQX - Free Report) have rallied 241.2%, 232.2% and 125.7%, respectively, over the same period.
Price Performance of CGAU vs. Industry, S&P 500, AU, DPMLF and EQX
From a valuation standpoint, CGAU is currently trading at a forward 12-month sales multiple of 3.00. This represents a roughly 15% discount when stacked up with the industry average of 3.52X. CGAU is trading at a discount to AngloGold, Equinox and DPM Metals. DPMLF, EQX and AU have a Value Score of D each.
Valuation of CGAU vs. Industry, AU, DPMLF and EQX
Investment Thesis for CGAU Stock
Centerra Gold is well positioned for steady production and improving cost visibility, with balanced exposure to gold and copper through Mount Milligan and Oksut. Stable grades, disciplined cost control and copper by-product credits support margin resilience, while elevated gold prices enhance cash generation despite ongoing sustaining capital. Strategic investments in mine-life extension strengthen long-term reserve visibility and asset value. Although metal price volatility and regulatory considerations in Turkey remain risks, solid liquidity and operational consistency underpin a constructive near-term outlook with improving free cash flow leverage.
Final Thoughts: Buy CGAU Stock
Building on solid third-quarter operational execution, marked by consistent production, disciplined cost execution and solid balance sheet strength, Centerra Gold is well positioned to carry positive momentum into the fourth quarter. Stable operations at Mount Milligan and Oksut, complemented by copper by-product credits and supportive gold prices, underpin margin strength and cash flow generation. Ongoing investments to extend mine life further enhance long-term asset value. With operational consistency and favorable pricing dynamics in place, the outlook remains constructive, reinforcing confidence in a buy recommendation.